Australians are expected to bet more on the US election than our own NRL and AFL grand finals. So why is betting on politics becoming so popular?
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As the world awaits the US election result, an unprecedented number of Australians are emptying their pockets and placing bets on which candidate will secure the presidency.
While betting on the 2016 US election was 'popular', the demand this time around 'has been absolutely enormous,' a spokesperson at Ladbrokes told Dateline.
'We have seen an unprecedented level of interest and that includes a number of very big bets,' they said.
'At this stage, it looks as though we will have more money wagered on the US Election than we did on both the AFL Grand Final and the NRL Grand Final,' they said.
Earlier this month, Sportsbet's creative director, Rambo Goraya told Mumbrella the company expects the 'election to be up there with the Melbourne Cup as our biggest event of 2020.'
Ladbrokes disagrees but claims Australians are gambling more money on the US election than the upcoming Queensland election.
'We held plenty of money on the last federal election, including a $1 million bet on Labor, but the US Election has still been more popular,' they added.
Along with Ladbrokes, Sportsbet and TAB have been widely advertising their services ahead of the November 3 election.
Sportsbet has been running nightly commercials showing a bright orange cartoon version of the president introducing the ‘Trump Hub', a place where punters can bet on the president's activities ahead of election day.
Listed items include whether the president's face will be added to Mt Rushmore, if Putin will join Trump at a rally or if he'll replace Ellen DeGeneres as a talk show host.
All three major companies have placed former Vice President Joe Biden as the favourite to win the election.
Along with polls, Ladbrokes says 'public forecasts provided by outlets like 538' and 'the weight of money for a certain candidate' play a part in determining the odds of the candidates.
But what's behind the rising interest in US politics?
In the US, it's illegal to bet on elections but in Australia, political bets have traditionally been seen as a 'novelty', says Dr Sally Gainsbury, Director of the Gambling, Treatment and Research Centre at The University of Sydney.
She says with less sporting events occurring and the closure of gambling venues during the pandemic, their popularity has increased.
'With the traditional things that would normally be happening at this time of year in terms of grand finals, and European or North American Summer sports, there's been a real reduction in opportunities to bet,' she told Dateline.
Dr Alex Russell is a Senior Postdoctoral Fellow at the Experimental Gambling Research Laboratory at Central Queensland University.
He says political betting is a great way to tap into the current conversations and 'get people talking'.
'They offer bets on just about anything. They do the same with what colour Scomo's tie will be during the next press conference or about who's going to be the next Pope because it's a point of difference,' Dr Russell said.
'If all they were advertising were sports betting, people would get a bit over it.'
Can bets be more accurate than polls?
The accuracy of polls has been brought into question after the last US election when it was universally predicted that Trump would lose.
A spokesperson at Ladbrokes told Dateline he believes betting odds can be more accurate than polls.
'The betting still had Trump as a big outsider in 2020, but not as much as the majority of polls indicated,' he said.
Dr Russell says while we have an idea that 'bookies always get it right,', that's not always the case.
Two days before the last federal election, Sportsbet handed out more than $1 million to bidders who thought Labor would win. The Liberal victory in the election meant the betting company ultimately lost large.
In 2016, the company was also forked to pay out $11 million to 25,000 punters who backed Trump in the US election.
Experts say there are also ethical issues involved with betting on an election when there's a possibility for punters to influence the outcome or in cases where they have insider knowledge.
'One concern is obviously if there's a lot of election betting and the odds are shifting, that can actually have a legitimate influence on how people cast their vote,' Dr Gainsbury said.
Australia's gambling addiction
Australia spends more on gambling per capita than any other country in the world and double the average of most western countries, according to Dr Gainsbury.
Dr Gainsbury said the 'problem gambling prevalence rate is around one percent but if you include people who are at sub-clinical levels, it's around four or five percent.'
'Australia has a gambling culture. We play Two-Up on Anzac Day and just about every sport match you watch has gambling advertisements all over it,' Dr Russell added.
Australian gamblers are betting more often during COVID-19, according to research released in October by the Australian Institute of Family Studies.
One in three participants of the study signed up for new online betting accounts during COVID-19 as other gambling activities were put on hold.
Lead researcher on the study, Dr Rebecca Jenkinson, said the findings around young men were a concern.
'Increased gambling among young men was often reported to be associated with being socially isolated, bored, or as a means of social connection with friends,' she said.
'On top of this, the easy, 24-hour accessibility of online gambling means young people have been able to bet at any time, any place.'
Dr Gainsbury says gambling stops being entertainment and starts becoming an addiction when people lose control of their spending or there's an aspect of secrecy around gambling behaviour.
'If you're concerned about yourself or someone else, you can temporarily block yourself from a gambling website and stop receiving their marketing material, or set a deposit limit,' Dr Gainsbury said.
'If someone is going to be betting on the election and that's all they intend to do, then it's quite useful to delete the app and turn off the marketing,' she added.
'Keep in mind, you should only gamble what you can afford to lose, and that you shouldn't be gambling with the expectation of winning any money.'
The University of Sydney's Gambling Treatment and Research Clinic has just launched an online self-help tool for gambling problems.
Readers seeking support can contact the Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 or Lifeline on 13 11 14.
The prospect of taking on a fatally wounded Trump for the presidency will tempt anyone with ambition. In an extremely open heat, for which could at least 20 names are plausible, here's my current top-ten.
Beto O'Rourke
Many argue that the Democrat list lacks a standout candidate – a star. O'Rourke would perfectly fit that void. He combines Barack Obama's politics and inspiring rhetoric with Bernie Sanders' ability to attract huge crowds, and Bobby Kennedy's looks. If anyone can drive turnout for the left – which may prove decisive in 2020 – it is Beto.
We don't know whether he'll run, but he will certainly be pressured to do so by the army of nationwide supporters built during a gallant campaign for Texas. Despite refusing corporate ‘PAC' money in favour of small donors – a salient issue on the Left – he raised more than any Senatorial candidate in history. He drew enormous crowds everywhere and his narrow defeat read very well compared to other Democrat Senate contenders in pro-Trump states. The wider electorate is much more fertile.
I first tipped O'Rourke for president at 50.0 months ago and went in again at 17.0 after the mid-terms. That defeat leaves him free to run if and constant speculation is guaranteed. Hypothetical match-up polls will soon emerge and drive the narrative. I predict they'll show O'Rourke beating Trump by double-digits.
Democrat Nominee odds:
2020 Presidential odds:
Kamala Harris
Harris is top-rated in the betting and her chance is obvious. The party is becoming ever more diverse from top to bottom and there's a very strong grassroots drive to pick female leaders. Critically, she is a Senator for California – whose primary will play a pivotal role from an earlier position on the schedule.
Given a high-profile role in the Senate, she won't lack publicity. She's very much on the front line in the bitter row over immigration and investigating Trump. However she is only one of several high-ranking women in contention and it isn't clear yet that Harris has what it takes to stand out in a presidential primary.
Democrat Nominee odds:
2020 Presidential odds:
Sherrod Brown
Brown's Senate defence in Ohio reads as good as any mid-term result. He won by 6.4% – up on 2012 despite the state moving notably away from the Democrats during that period. On the same night, they failed to win the Governorship. If flipping this state in a general election, the presidency would be assured.
Amid much excitement online, Brown has confirmed he's seriously considering a run. He is firmly on the left of the party, closely allied to Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, but backed Clinton and was apparently on her VP shortlist. A national stage is a big step up for this Ohio veteran but he's well-placed to be the standard bearer for progressives and his white working-class support should terrify Trump.
Democrat Nominee odds:
2020 Presidential odds:
Kirsten Gillibrand
A high-profile experienced Senator from New York who has been among the most vocal MeToo campaigners. A strong resume on paper but Gillibrand alienated key supporters by criticising Bill Clinton and Al Franken over sexual abuse. Nevertheless everything about her behaviour points towards a run and perhaps those controversies will now work to her advantage.
Democrat Nominee odds:
2020 Presidential odds:
Amy Klobuchar
Another mid-terms star, Klobuchar retained her Minnesota Senate seat by 24%, thriving among all-important suburban women following a strong performance during the Kavanaugh hearings. Her profile is rising fast and she's openly considering a run. Her state neighbours Iowa and her relatively moderate centrist style would be ideal to win Independents against Trump.
Democrat Nominee odds:
2020 Presidential odds:
Earlier this month, Sportsbet's creative director, Rambo Goraya told Mumbrella the company expects the 'election to be up there with the Melbourne Cup as our biggest event of 2020.'
Ladbrokes disagrees but claims Australians are gambling more money on the US election than the upcoming Queensland election.
'We held plenty of money on the last federal election, including a $1 million bet on Labor, but the US Election has still been more popular,' they added.
Along with Ladbrokes, Sportsbet and TAB have been widely advertising their services ahead of the November 3 election.
Sportsbet has been running nightly commercials showing a bright orange cartoon version of the president introducing the ‘Trump Hub', a place where punters can bet on the president's activities ahead of election day.
Listed items include whether the president's face will be added to Mt Rushmore, if Putin will join Trump at a rally or if he'll replace Ellen DeGeneres as a talk show host.
All three major companies have placed former Vice President Joe Biden as the favourite to win the election.
Along with polls, Ladbrokes says 'public forecasts provided by outlets like 538' and 'the weight of money for a certain candidate' play a part in determining the odds of the candidates.
But what's behind the rising interest in US politics?
In the US, it's illegal to bet on elections but in Australia, political bets have traditionally been seen as a 'novelty', says Dr Sally Gainsbury, Director of the Gambling, Treatment and Research Centre at The University of Sydney.
She says with less sporting events occurring and the closure of gambling venues during the pandemic, their popularity has increased.
'With the traditional things that would normally be happening at this time of year in terms of grand finals, and European or North American Summer sports, there's been a real reduction in opportunities to bet,' she told Dateline.
Dr Alex Russell is a Senior Postdoctoral Fellow at the Experimental Gambling Research Laboratory at Central Queensland University.
He says political betting is a great way to tap into the current conversations and 'get people talking'.
'They offer bets on just about anything. They do the same with what colour Scomo's tie will be during the next press conference or about who's going to be the next Pope because it's a point of difference,' Dr Russell said.
'If all they were advertising were sports betting, people would get a bit over it.'
Can bets be more accurate than polls?
The accuracy of polls has been brought into question after the last US election when it was universally predicted that Trump would lose.
A spokesperson at Ladbrokes told Dateline he believes betting odds can be more accurate than polls.
'The betting still had Trump as a big outsider in 2020, but not as much as the majority of polls indicated,' he said.
Dr Russell says while we have an idea that 'bookies always get it right,', that's not always the case.
Two days before the last federal election, Sportsbet handed out more than $1 million to bidders who thought Labor would win. The Liberal victory in the election meant the betting company ultimately lost large.
In 2016, the company was also forked to pay out $11 million to 25,000 punters who backed Trump in the US election.
Experts say there are also ethical issues involved with betting on an election when there's a possibility for punters to influence the outcome or in cases where they have insider knowledge.
'One concern is obviously if there's a lot of election betting and the odds are shifting, that can actually have a legitimate influence on how people cast their vote,' Dr Gainsbury said.
Australia's gambling addiction
Australia spends more on gambling per capita than any other country in the world and double the average of most western countries, according to Dr Gainsbury.
Dr Gainsbury said the 'problem gambling prevalence rate is around one percent but if you include people who are at sub-clinical levels, it's around four or five percent.'
'Australia has a gambling culture. We play Two-Up on Anzac Day and just about every sport match you watch has gambling advertisements all over it,' Dr Russell added.
Australian gamblers are betting more often during COVID-19, according to research released in October by the Australian Institute of Family Studies.
One in three participants of the study signed up for new online betting accounts during COVID-19 as other gambling activities were put on hold.
Lead researcher on the study, Dr Rebecca Jenkinson, said the findings around young men were a concern.
'Increased gambling among young men was often reported to be associated with being socially isolated, bored, or as a means of social connection with friends,' she said.
'On top of this, the easy, 24-hour accessibility of online gambling means young people have been able to bet at any time, any place.'
Dr Gainsbury says gambling stops being entertainment and starts becoming an addiction when people lose control of their spending or there's an aspect of secrecy around gambling behaviour.
'If you're concerned about yourself or someone else, you can temporarily block yourself from a gambling website and stop receiving their marketing material, or set a deposit limit,' Dr Gainsbury said.
'If someone is going to be betting on the election and that's all they intend to do, then it's quite useful to delete the app and turn off the marketing,' she added.
'Keep in mind, you should only gamble what you can afford to lose, and that you shouldn't be gambling with the expectation of winning any money.'
The University of Sydney's Gambling Treatment and Research Clinic has just launched an online self-help tool for gambling problems.
Readers seeking support can contact the Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 or Lifeline on 13 11 14.
The prospect of taking on a fatally wounded Trump for the presidency will tempt anyone with ambition. In an extremely open heat, for which could at least 20 names are plausible, here's my current top-ten.
Beto O'Rourke
Many argue that the Democrat list lacks a standout candidate – a star. O'Rourke would perfectly fit that void. He combines Barack Obama's politics and inspiring rhetoric with Bernie Sanders' ability to attract huge crowds, and Bobby Kennedy's looks. If anyone can drive turnout for the left – which may prove decisive in 2020 – it is Beto.
We don't know whether he'll run, but he will certainly be pressured to do so by the army of nationwide supporters built during a gallant campaign for Texas. Despite refusing corporate ‘PAC' money in favour of small donors – a salient issue on the Left – he raised more than any Senatorial candidate in history. He drew enormous crowds everywhere and his narrow defeat read very well compared to other Democrat Senate contenders in pro-Trump states. The wider electorate is much more fertile.
I first tipped O'Rourke for president at 50.0 months ago and went in again at 17.0 after the mid-terms. That defeat leaves him free to run if and constant speculation is guaranteed. Hypothetical match-up polls will soon emerge and drive the narrative. I predict they'll show O'Rourke beating Trump by double-digits.
Democrat Nominee odds:
2020 Presidential odds:
Kamala Harris
Harris is top-rated in the betting and her chance is obvious. The party is becoming ever more diverse from top to bottom and there's a very strong grassroots drive to pick female leaders. Critically, she is a Senator for California – whose primary will play a pivotal role from an earlier position on the schedule.
Given a high-profile role in the Senate, she won't lack publicity. She's very much on the front line in the bitter row over immigration and investigating Trump. However she is only one of several high-ranking women in contention and it isn't clear yet that Harris has what it takes to stand out in a presidential primary.
Democrat Nominee odds:
2020 Presidential odds:
Sherrod Brown
Brown's Senate defence in Ohio reads as good as any mid-term result. He won by 6.4% – up on 2012 despite the state moving notably away from the Democrats during that period. On the same night, they failed to win the Governorship. If flipping this state in a general election, the presidency would be assured.
Amid much excitement online, Brown has confirmed he's seriously considering a run. He is firmly on the left of the party, closely allied to Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, but backed Clinton and was apparently on her VP shortlist. A national stage is a big step up for this Ohio veteran but he's well-placed to be the standard bearer for progressives and his white working-class support should terrify Trump.
Democrat Nominee odds:
2020 Presidential odds:
Kirsten Gillibrand
A high-profile experienced Senator from New York who has been among the most vocal MeToo campaigners. A strong resume on paper but Gillibrand alienated key supporters by criticising Bill Clinton and Al Franken over sexual abuse. Nevertheless everything about her behaviour points towards a run and perhaps those controversies will now work to her advantage.
Democrat Nominee odds:
2020 Presidential odds:
Amy Klobuchar
Another mid-terms star, Klobuchar retained her Minnesota Senate seat by 24%, thriving among all-important suburban women following a strong performance during the Kavanaugh hearings. Her profile is rising fast and she's openly considering a run. Her state neighbours Iowa and her relatively moderate centrist style would be ideal to win Independents against Trump.
Democrat Nominee odds:
2020 Presidential odds:
Joe Biden
Don't overstate Biden's early poll lead. At this stage, the former VP enjoys a vast name recognition advantage and he is hugely popular. He's also 76 and in a party where old, white men are out of fashion. I don't expect ‘Uncle Joe' to run but do expect he'll enjoy teasing the media. If I'm wrong, though, he would destroy Trump.
Democrat Nominee odds:
2020 Presidential odds:
Elizabeth Warren
Warren's low position may surprise. She is a darling of the Left and, with hindsight, should have taken on Clinton in 2016. However I've never been certain she had presidential ambitions and it feels increasingly like her chance has faded. She fares worse than rivals in head-to-head polls versus Trump and self-harmed when taking a DNA test to prove distant Native American heritage. I think she'll hand Brown a massive endorsement.
Us Election Bet Au
Democrat Nominee odds:
2020 Presidential odds:
Bernie Sanders
Will Bernie try again? Like Warren, his decisions are keenly awaited. Now 77, Sanders remains the leader of a growing progressive movement and attracts huge crowds, but his preferred candidates didn't fare so well in the mid-terms. I can envisage him winning primaries against this crowded field with a 35% vote share. I can equally see him backing Sherrod Brown – who has wider appeal and a less defined image.
Democrat Nominee odds:
2020 Presidential odds:
Michael Bloomberg
Here's a wild-card. Formerly Republican Mayor of New York, Bloomberg has switched sides. Cash won't be a problem for this self-financing billionaire, who would surely relish comparing his philanthropic record with Trump. Whilst his politics are probably not left enough for a Democrat primary, he oozes gravitas and could have a moderating impact in debates. Primary turnout will be huge, involving many independents, amongst whom he could play extremely well.
2020 Presidential odds:
Michael Avenatti
After 2016, we dismiss unconventional social media masters at our peril. Representing porn star Stormy Daniels may not be an obvious route to the presidency, but Avenatti became an overnight star, positioned as a ‘fighter for good', leading The Resistance. In taking down Michael Cohen, he landed a blow on Trump that no politician has yet mustered. He seems near certain to run and, as Trump's legal travails continue, will remain all over the media.
Us Election Odds Australia Latest
Democrat Nominee odds:
2020 Presidential odds:
OTHERS
Don't believe the hype. Hillary Clinton won't run and if she did, humiliating defeat awaits. Time has moved on. Cory Booker has been touring the key states and will likely run. The moves of Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper imply the same.
Us Election Odds Australia Sportsbet
As Governor of Montana, Steve Bullock is another who has proved he can win in a Trump state. Finally former Attorney General Eric Holder seems to be dipping his toe in the water and could gain establishment backing from both Obama and Clinton supporters.
CONCLUSION
No Democratic Nominee can match Beto O'Rourke for star power and momentum. I've backed him several times and will continue doing so. However, his value has diminished significantly.
The remaining stand out bet is Sherrod Brown. I'm anticipating big support from Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, and am backing the Ohio Senator at big odds. He's $30+ to just be nominated, where I mark him in single digits.
BETTING STRATEGY
BACK Beto O'Rourke for the US Presidency at $9 or above
BACK Sherrod Brown for the Democratic Nominee at $20 or above
BACK Sherrod Brown for the US Presidency at $34 or above
